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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple formula. It often serves as a type of apology. We regret we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround wins the prize. However, it fuels an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or simply the most shocking shock.

However the current race is distinctly different. The pool of candidates is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division winners fading and longtime underperformers improving collectively. Under an ordinary season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a turbulent and thrilling year, he's up against five other elite coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his special talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent performance. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to conjure magic from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Almost each bet – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the organization with the level of expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But this isn't a normal year!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has mastered the leadership aspects, which was not a certainty following his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet he has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason setback caused the team stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed since that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still